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Thread: CM round outcome statistics

  1. #1
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    Post CM round outcome statistics

    Intoduction
    As one of the regular workers in the salt mines known as the CM meta debates on Discord, at some point I've felt that maybe a more statistical approach would help us to get that unbalanced crap nerfed already achieve a better understanding of the game meta.

    Since #new-round-alert until recently used to provide round starts, ends, maps and outcomes, that's most of the data we need.

    The only thing missing is the server population. While we don't have it, we can assume that population is going to be roughly similar at a particular time of the day, every day. So each graph presented here would be outcomes and durations grouped by UTC roundstart hours.

    Another thing to note is that I only have the outcome data starting from 2020-04-29, that's when it was added to the bot. That's very unfortunate, since I was really interested to see how much the statistics changed with the MOBA update.


    Techwebs
    Lets start with looking into how techwebs has affected the game meta. Here's the pre-techwebs outcomes vs techwebs:




    While we can see that while before marines never hit 50% major rate, now they generally hit it all over the high pop, this is slightly misleading, because techwebs also removed marine minors, since now those are generally meaningless. If we combine faction majors and minors, we get this:




    This is a lot closer, right? Well, here we can clearly see, that while techwebs buffed marine winrate, it's generally no more than 5%.

    Another thing to note it that unga hour at 20 UTC, followed by xenomain hour at 22 UTC. And you can see a similar pattern in pre-techwebs meta, only offset by 2 hours. I'm not entirely sure why such offset happened, but it's probably combination of DST and lower population now, than in 2020.

    Now lets look at round duration:




    Here you can see, that the average round is roughly shorter by 5 minutes. Except for xeno majors, which now take up to 20 minutes longer, on the EU high pop.

    Then, let's look at the 2 of the community's most favored maps and see how they changed with techwebs.

    LV:






    Note how both unga hour and xenomain hour are both present here. And you can clearly see that those timeslots that were already marine favored, favor them even more now. As for duration, you can see, that while marine majors are shorter now, xeno majors take much longer and this averages to a similar duration to the pre-techwebs state.

    Big Red:






    Solaris was surprisingly balanced before, but now it's really wacky. Here you can make the case of xenos winning harder too, whenever they were favored to win before.

    For some comedy relief lets look at Trijent Dam:






    Again, marines are winning even harder now. In fact I had to change my normal graph scaling to even display this correctly. Also note the xenomain hour in pre-techwebs graph, leading to a large amount of marine minors instead of majors.


    Thanks to Grimreaperx15 for giving me permission to publish this.

    Continued in part 2.
    Last edited by sg2002; 08-24-2021 at 11:35 PM.
    Roman 'Fire' Kacew

  2. #2
    Dev Team Manager Stan_albatross's Avatar
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    Oh my goodness gracious. This is a blessed thread.

    Post more graphs and data pls

    Also THIS https://ss13stats.affectedarc07.co.uk/server/34

    This website shows server population although it only goes back a week
    Helps you get an idea of peaks and troughs
    Karl Karlsson, the man (and sometimes Captain)
    Maxwell, the synth
    Enhath'vot Guan-Dha, the predator
    Also a feature Coder & CM's Maintainer Team Manager

    Timeline :
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    [CENTER]Retired Synth councilman, forever a member of IO gang

  3. #3
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    New maps

    Now lets look at the three new maps in the pool, starting with Kutjevo:




    Kutjevo seems to really go one side, or the other. This is somewhat misleading, since there's just not enough rounds played on it in the data set. That 70% xeno major is just 4 rounds out 6 won by xenos at that hour.

    Science Annex:




    Annex looks somewhat balanced, probably due to every single sweaty marine main logging off, when it starts.

    Snow:




    Snow looks decent too, but the data set for it is too small, so...


    Legacy maps

    Now that's where the real fun begins. And you all know which map we gonna look at first:




    See, marines were even winning on it, sometimes! Also, is there anything more lovely than a good 3 hour long xeno major on ICE?

    Sorokyne Strata:





    Kind of weird how marines had such a good winrate at lowpop Soro.

    CORSAT:




    Now that's how a good outcome graph should look like if you ask me. Honestly I'd be running some kind of clanside "bring back CORSAT", movement, if I wasn't busy running another such movement for ICE.

    Prison:




    Nothing particularly unexpected for Prison, though I kind of thought it was more balanced.


    Thanks you for your attention, if you want to thank me for my work, log on to the server, click join as xeno and then REEEEE.

    I've put the code I used to generate those graphs here, if you want to play around with it.
    Roman 'Fire' Kacew

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    I found the people who enjoy doing their taxes

  5. #5
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    As much as I absolutely love stats since they show valuable and concrete information, what’s the point here?

    There’s already 200 posts about removing techwebs and I don’t think statistics will make players play xenos, unless they want to.

  6. #6
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    Amazing work super interesting. Also I dont like corsat that much but by god can we please have it over shivas. At least its functional and basically complete. Shivas needs alot of work and it should be benched for the time being

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZAB1019 View Post
    I found the people who enjoy doing their taxes
    Even better! We found people to do my taxes. So uhhh.... where do I mail my IRS account info to?

  8. #8
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    I want to point out that xeno minors feel more like marine victories since it usually means the hive got wiped out.

  9. #9
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    This is actually fascinating, I wish this stuff was just published automatically.

  10. #10
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    This stuff just got removed from the discord, it used to show win rates at times of day but it got removed because it damages roleplay apparently

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