For a coin toss, yeah. The chance are technicly equals.
Except we ain't really dealing here with coin toss right?
And the litteral match that made me decide to finally speak about this problem had ALL the things you defend
CAS: emptied the entire REQ for himself.
Result? Failed to avoid the marines to get an evac.
Bonus: Killed fifteens marines in said evac.
On the note of math: yeah, it still take the equivalent of one missile away for... 8 minutes. Jesus Christ ho horrifying. If you're really going to use THAT as an excuse, even for roundstart.... And I'm the one who's supposedly stuborn. Riiiight.