LV fog and the gaps

[Madventurer]

The exact chances are the following.
1. East/west/middle hole all have a 30% chance.
This means the chance to have 3 holes in the fog in a round is 2.7%
The chance to have 2 holes is 12.6%
The chance for 1 hole is 50.4
And last the chance for no holes is still 30.4%
So most of the rounds you play have a gap or more in the fog (70%)
But only 15.3% of rounds have 2 gaps or more and thus fog lifting later then the old time.
I just got word the latest the fog should be able to drop is 13:20ish. And that can only happen in that 2.7% of rounds.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Table with probability.

There is absolutely no way the 2.7% chance for triple gap is correct.

I see far more rounds with triple gap than the number would imply (roughly 1 every 40 rounds). There are often multiple rounds per day that have three fog gaps, which should be statistically impossible, given that rounds are 1h for shortest.

This leaves us with 24 rounds per day max, lower in practice, maybe 20.
Suppose the rate was actually twice higher, at 5.2%. That would give us one round of triple gaps per day, IF ALL ROUNDS WERE LV.

Either I have absurdly specific luck with getting all of the fog gaps (or two at the minimum), or the code for determining fog gaps is not working as intended.

[DaDoge]

I think it might be luck, I really can't remember time when I saw gaps in more then one place. I mean untill I saw Awans post I did not even know it's possible.

[Swagile]

I don't really care for all this statistical jargon.

All I know is that fog gap and hydro jungle bridge gap is not fun at all for either side and this is bad game design. One side sits with tank / CAS / OB's / cades without ability to push, the other side sits with boilers / crushers / ravagers / strong resin walls / sticky resin and is unable to push for up to 30 mins if not an hour.

Thats all that really matters.

[awan]

There is absolutely no way the 2.7% chance for triple gap is correct.

I see far more rounds with triple gap than the number would imply (roughly 1 every 40 rounds). There are often multiple rounds per day that have three fog gaps, which should be statistically impossible, given that rounds are 1h for shortest.

This leaves us with 24 rounds per day max, lower in practice, maybe 20.
Suppose the rate was actually twice higher, at 5.2%. That would give us one round of triple gaps per day, IF ALL ROUNDS WERE LV.

Either I have absurdly specific luck with getting all of the fog gaps (or two at the minimum), or the code for determining fog gaps is not working as intended.

Well, I asked and the only thing that got mentioned is that sometimes nmc won't run after a round. This is mostly a special situation like when branches are swapped.
And that in general, that means the last used map would be used. So then you would have 2 rounds on the same map in a row. It is also improbable not impossible.
The code for it was written in C#/.net and I am quite sure the code is not wrong with randomization. I would see byond getting that wrong happen before C# getting that wrong.

I don't really care for all this statistical jargon.

All I know is that fog gap and hydro jungle bridge gap is not fun at all for either side and this is bad game design. One side sits with tank / CAS / OB's / cades without ability to push, the other side sits with boilers / crushers / ravagers / strong resin walls / sticky resin and is unable to push for up to 30 mins if not an hour.

Thats all that really matters.

The point is that that is still better than meta rushes.
And it is also better in my opinion than sitting there doing nothing until 12:50. Now you are at least engaging and have to do something instead of just sitting there waiting.
Most of the rounds with fog gaps it will still lift before it would lift in the old situation. Thus, in general, this is still an improvement. Because it addresses the issues I mentioned in my earlier post.
1. There is still a mechanic to prevent rushes.
2. It makes rounds less long than the original situation. (Also making rounds longer is kinda the goal of an anti rush mechanic.)
3. You get to skirmish instead of just the engineers having to do something. Now SL's, marines, medics etc get to do /something/
4. Either side can cross if the other makes a huge mistake.
5. There is action before the fog lifts.

[Swagile]

Well, I asked and the only thing that got mentioned is that sometimes nmc won't run after a round. This is mostly a special situation like when branches are swapped.
And that in general, that means the last used map would be used. So then you would have 2 rounds on the same map in a row. It is also improbable not impossible.
The code for it was written in C#/.net and I am quite sure the code is not wrong with randomization. I would see byond getting that wrong happen before C# getting that wrong.



The point is that that is still better than meta rushes.
And it is also better in my opinion than sitting there doing nothing until 12:50. Now you are at least engaging and have to do something instead of just sitting there waiting.
Most of the rounds with fog gaps it will still lift before it would lift in the old situation. Thus, in general, this is still an improvement. Because it addresses the issues I mentioned in my earlier post.
1. There is still a mechanic to prevent rushes.
2. It makes rounds less long than the original situation. (Also making rounds longer is kinda the goal of an anti rush mechanic.)
3. You get to skirmish instead of just the engineers having to do something. Now SL's, marines, medics etc get to do /something/
4. Either side can cross if the other makes a huge mistake.
5. There is action before the fog lifts.

I don't think you get it.

The gap is not fun at all to fight in because the game wasn't meant to be fought in a stalemate. Its why DEFCON / burrowed are a thing; because once you are stuck in a stalemate where neither side can do anything, the game is NOT fun.

But ok, let me respond to your points then.

1. Rushes aren't prevented; they still happen when either side is bald. We still have hivelords that rush Hydro Road before marines even drop, mass spam resin walls, then weed and fortify hydro + Bridge to make it impenetrable from a marine + tank rush for a good 10 minutes. The same can be said on marine side; there have been round that end at 12:50 because xenos were incompetent or just gave up bridge without a fight, we push in with Tank + no casualties and roll xenomorphs as they have to retreat to caves before they can even hit one of the marines.

2. The rounds ive been have been LONGER than old 12:50 fog drop. The reason? 12:50 fog drop gave marines enough time to setup a FOB at Hydro and LZ-1, and maybe a Hydro Road FOB if they were smart (20 mins of prep time if they drop at 12:30). And because ALL OF FOG dropped, this meant they could attack from ANY direction instead of just a narrow bridge. On the flip side, the 45 minute prep time (accounting for evolves) that xenos got let them properly secure Tfort area and Containers and make it a nightmare for marines to push if they did it correctly. This mechanic allowed for push and pull gameplay, instead of the stalemate we now have at Bridge because the fog is impenetrable, un-c4able, unrammable, uneverything and ONLY goes down due to a time limit. Which means some rounds we don't even get PAST bridge; its 13:20 and we retreat to LZ-1 cause fuck fighting xenos on the Bridge when they have 3 + boilers, 2 crushers, and Ravagers / Praes; all of who are made to fight in such chokepoints.

3. There is no "skirmishing"; do you even play? If by "skirmishing" you mean "shoot into green gas because your screen is always filled with gas" then sure. Thats not fun or innovative gameplay, thats just suppressing fire because the moment we push, boilers fire a blob behind us to block escape, rush in with ravagers and crushers, then drag away anyone who isn't dead. Rinse and repeat. Again, not fun; id rather be AFK waiting for 12:50 while letting my engineers do their thing than to be one hit killed by a boiler or crusher rammed then stomped because I can't escape the shitty bridge gap in a push. Hence all the marines don't have the guts to push because of the cancer that is Bridge Boiler Crusher combo, so the situation is now WORSE than the 12:50 fog lift. We are now actively wasting ammo, OB, CAS, tank ammo and integrity just to keep xenos from pushing in, while doing no active damage in a shitty stalemate.

4. Thats the only point I can say I can agree with. Still doesn't make the nightmare fog mechanic good at all.

5. Read the above. Action where your doing basically nothing and amounting to nothing while investing a lot is not fun action at all. This is why FOB fighting is so boring for xenos against autism forts; you slice a cade and you invest lots of health and possible death (due to barbed wire and getting shot at) only for it to be repaired or replaced. Repeat this for an hour or so and xenos get tired of attacking FOB's that are actually decently placed because its fucking boring not to do anything worthwhile with all that investment. This is exactly the same situation with the Bridge / East / West fog gaps. We invest a lot and get little return if not negative return, and then refuse to invest anymore, which causes stalemates.

TL;DR you are defending a shit mechanic because "marine can pew pew / xeno can claw claw earlier" without looking at why its a shit mechanic.

[Madventurer]

Above are very good points.

Rushes still happen, marines just have to get past the bridge chokepoint. Easier said than done, but good CAS/OB or bad xenos WILL result in a rush. Flipside is still that a failed rush means marines just lose because of 30 minute attrition stalemate instead of a field of battle.

I have no comment on the round length, as I'm not quite sure what that means. I agree with the points raised by Swagile though, as marines don't have time to prepare AND xenos mature faster than ever. Thus, no proper defenses when action starts...

Skirmishes amount to IOs and their escorts fighting lurkers and runners outside of the FOB in colony. That is, if there is other fog gap than the one marines are piled at.

I do agree that point 4 is true, but 30 minutes where a huge mistake is the only way to push?

The action is, as mentioned, the worst kind: Siege. Marines sit at cades, boiler gas hits, xenos run in to slash, gas goes away, marines fix, rinse and repeat until boiler gas goes through cades and kills the engineers. Fun.

[awan]

I don't think you get it.

The gap is not fun at all to fight in because the game wasn't meant to be fought in a stalemate. Its why DEFCON / burrowed are a thing; because once you are stuck in a stalemate where neither side can do anything, the game is NOT fun.

But ok, let me respond to your points then.

1. Rushes aren't prevented; they still happen when either side is bald. We still have hivelords that rush Hydro Road before marines even drop, mass spam resin walls, then weed and fortify hydro + Bridge to make it impenetrable from a marine + tank rush for a good 10 minutes. The same can be said on marine side; there have been round that end at 12:50 because xenos were incompetent or just gave up bridge without a fight, we push in with Tank + no casualties and roll xenomorphs as they have to retreat to caves before they can even hit one of the marines.

2. The rounds ive been have been LONGER than old 12:50 fog drop. The reason? 12:50 fog drop gave marines enough time to setup a FOB at Hydro and LZ-1, and maybe a Hydro Road FOB if they were smart (20 mins of prep time if they drop at 12:30). And because ALL OF FOG dropped, this meant they could attack from ANY direction instead of just a narrow bridge. On the flip side, the 45 minute prep time (accounting for evolves) that xenos got let them properly secure Tfort area and Containers and make it a nightmare for marines to push if they did it correctly. This mechanic allowed for push and pull gameplay, instead of the stalemate we now have at Bridge because the fog is impenetrable, un-c4able, unrammable, uneverything and ONLY goes down due to a time limit. Which means some rounds we don't even get PAST bridge; its 13:20 and we retreat to LZ-1 cause fuck fighting xenos on the Bridge when they have 3 + boilers, 2 crushers, and Ravagers / Praes; all of who are made to fight in such chokepoints.

3. There is no "skirmishing"; do you even play? If by "skirmishing" you mean "shoot into green gas because your screen is always filled with gas" then sure. Thats not fun or innovative gameplay, thats just suppressing fire because the moment we push, boilers fire a blob behind us to block escape, rush in with ravagers and crushers, then drag away anyone who isn't dead. Rinse and repeat. Again, not fun; id rather be AFK waiting for 12:50 while letting my engineers do their thing than to be one hit killed by a boiler or crusher rammed then stomped because I can't escape the shitty bridge gap in a push. Hence all the marines don't have the guts to push because of the cancer that is Bridge Boiler Crusher combo, so the situation is now WORSE than the 12:50 fog lift. We are now actively wasting ammo, OB, CAS, tank ammo and integrity just to keep xenos from pushing in, while doing no active damage in a shitty stalemate.

4. Thats the only point I can say I can agree with. Still doesn't make the nightmare fog mechanic good at all.

5. Read the above. Action where your doing basically nothing and amounting to nothing while investing a lot is not fun action at all. This is why FOB fighting is so boring for xenos against autism forts; you slice a cade and you invest lots of health and possible death (due to barbed wire and getting shot at) only for it to be repaired or replaced. Repeat this for an hour or so and xenos get tired of attacking FOB's that are actually decently placed because its fucking boring not to do anything worthwhile with all that investment. This is exactly the same situation with the Bridge / East / West fog gaps. We invest a lot and get little return if not negative return, and then refuse to invest anymore, which causes stalemates.

TL;DR you are defending a shit mechanic because "marine can pew pew / xeno can claw claw earlier" without looking at why its a shit mechanic.

Thanks for yelling I don't get it.

1. It is a stalemate with a forced end. We try to do this with almost everything but there is multiple mechanics in game that force you to be in a stalemate of some kind. Like: SD, FOB's, Civ ress, Barricades and even Trijent causes these. Any game with have stalemates we just try to make sure they have an end and these do. What is fun is an opinion. If we assume a normal round time of 13:30 it means that in the old situation where the fog lifts (12:50) you have lost or won by 13:10. That's 20 minutes of fighting on the planet. The last 20 minutes of the game happen on the almayer. Ill be honest afaik all devs agree that if the aliens board the almayer they should win under normal circumstances. That means the actual fighting is almost as long on the planet as on the almayer and thats just worse gameplay design.

2. If xeno's do not defend they lose. Are you saying the previous is a bad thing? I think aliens sitting around doing nothing is also something that should be prevented. If you wanna talk about boring gameplay sitting around doing nothing is boring. And I never saw all of the hive quickly get to the marine side to try and go upto the almayer asap. When I say prevent rushes it is mostly marine rushes. Even though xeno rushes are strong as well xeno's have a better chance prolonging the game and that is well known.

3. I have the data and if the current fog made rounds longer that means even less time spend on the ground. Because the majority of the time xeno's win. Shorter xeno rounds are way more influential then shorter marine rounds. I honestly think it is a bias for the rounds that are quicker compared to the rounds that are longer. We had loads of shitty old lv rounds. Also why can xeno's not secure t-fort and marines not secure hydro at this time? In general, you do not need that much time to make a hive or fob. When the fog goes down both have happened. I do think that marines not getting past the fog balances out with aliens not defending it.

4. The second the dropships landed all aliens went back to the hive and stuck there. Now I see them trying to engage marines for easy kills before heading back. That is skirmishing. Going back and forth attacking. Yes, once marines get to the bridge xeno's lose that. But before that time aliens attack now. Marines do not enter a map devoid of xeno's/enemies. In general crushers are very unlikely to get enough charge to hit you hard. So you mostly have to worry about boilers.

5. It's not a mechanic to make the game more fun to play it is a mechanic to prevent rushes from the marines mostly. And I have never heard you suggest something better. If you wanna do keep in mind going back to the old situation likely won't happen and just saying no fog is also no option.

6. Sitting around waiting for the fog to drop is just as dumb. You would just force one big engagement that the other side hopefully never recovers from.

7. I never hear anyone complain about the North or south entrances to civ ress. Those would imo be easier to defend as xeno's. Because crushers work there and it's a longer 3 tile wide corridor.
The middle side might be easier to break through but in general even that is a stalemate that is not that hard to lock down.

[Oaks]

LV was a classic map. You knew what you were going to get until 12:50, having time to prep, fortify and RP around with your fellow marines. The fog would then drop and it would be showtime. An all-out battle for t-fort, having engagements which can go either way. It was a true no-mans-land, and it never got old...

Those days are gone though, and now we have to suffer the same boring chokepoints and funneled gameplay. I'm not mad the way a good thing died, and im past the point of being disappointed. I'm just glad I got to play when it was fun.

[Avalanchee]

LV was a classic map. You knew what you were going to get until 12:50, having time to prep, fortify and RP around with your fellow marines. The fog would then drop and it would be showtime. An all-out battle for t-fort, having engagements which can go either way. It was a true no-mans-land, and it never got old...

Those days are gone though, and now we have to suffer the same boring chokepoints and funneled gameplay. I'm not mad the way a good thing died, and im past the point of being disappointed. I'm just glad I got to play when it was fun.

This, this and this.

[Chaznoodles]

LV was a classic map. You knew what you were going to get until 12:50, having time to prep, fortify and RP around with your fellow marines. The fog would then drop and it would be showtime. An all-out battle for t-fort, having engagements which can go either way. It was a true no-mans-land, and it never got old...

Those days are gone though, and now we have to suffer the same boring chokepoints and funneled gameplay. I'm not mad the way a good thing died, and im past the point of being disappointed. I'm just glad I got to play when it was fun.

Yeah. The age-old mantra should've applied: Don't fix what isn't broken.